New Technology: 2012 December Update

SSD prices are low—and they'll get lower. MeRAM posed to supplant NAND flash memory...

IBM Integrates Optics onto Silicon...

Sun/Oracle receives patent 8,316,366 on Transactional Threading on November 2012... this came on the heels of a 2011 paper on formally verifying transactional memory on September 2011.

Silence has been from Sun/Oracle VLSI group on Proximity Communications, research funding is due to expire in 2013, is there a product in the future?

Samsung Spends $3.9bn on iPhone Chip Factory in Texas.

Texas Instruments to cut 517 OPAM Smartphone/Tablet Chip Manufacturing jobs in France.

AWS (Amazon Web Services) Hosting Server Retirement Notifications Wanting...

Microsoft Outlook 2013 Willfully Broken: Will Not Recognize .doc or .xls Files

Microsoft Windows 8: Hidden Backup & Clone Feature

Cloud Migration: iPhone, iPodTouch, iPad

I considered a quick blog posting from Cloud Migration today:

I just keep thinking that the proliferation of iPads and tablets in the enterprise is leading us back to the path of thick client computing. Don't get me wrong, I love the iPad and believe it is a great device....for emails, surfing the web, playing music, playing games, and getting directions. However, it is as thick of a client device as you can get. In addition, just like 3270 screens were proprietary, they are a proprietary platform. It seems like just yesterday everyone was rushing to get off of client/server systems and move to thin client machines with browser based access.

Of course, I thought this was interesting, but this left me with a bunch of thoughts:

[courtesy: thenewiphone.info 2011 rumor]

> proliferation of iPads and tablets in the enterprise is leading us back
> to the path of thick client computing

That is a very interesting thought.

• UNIX is the firmware in the iPad, iPodTouch, iPhone
• UNIX does not make it thick, Sun Workstations were thin
• UNIX makes i* more Open.

There is virtually no customization on the client end,
so I don't quite think that i* are thick clients.


> just like 3270 screens were proprietary

iPhone's and iPad's were specifically called out, "tablets" suggest Windows, but Android is not quite Open...

• Does Android comply with POSIX? OpenFirmware?
• Is Android getting sued for using Java?

What are the thin alternatives?

• SunRay's used to be SPARC based, but no longer. SPARC was Open.
• SunRay's were never based upon Solaris. Solaris was Open.
• SunRay's used a proprietary firmware, not based upon OpenBoot.

The SunRay's are more of an ultra-thin form factor, with firmware
that will update automatically (much the same way that i* devices
will, except the i* devices prompt the user for a convenient time
to update with the ability to customize their firmware.)

Other thoughts about thin clients:

• I don't see SunRay's in i* or tablet form-factors.
• I don't see SunRay's being sold by TelCo providers,
  as basic utilities leveraging their network infrastructure.
• I don't see SunRay's clients provided by non-Oracle vendors

Don't get me wrong, I have 3 SunRay's on my desktop, this very moment,
running SPARC Solaris OpenLook desktops (CDE and JDS are way too heavy
and difficult to customize for real business usage.) All our users run
third-party apps off of an internal Solaris cloud that I built years ago.

Right now, the i* format factor is less expensive, easier to use,
and perceived as more open than other thin client technologies.

Honestly, there is no reason why clouds should not be built on SunRay's.


If clouds are not using SunRay's, then Oracle needs to figure out how to
fix it, and I will be the first one on-board to advocate migrating my
decade old private Solaris SPARC cloud providing 300 thin clients!

Mobile Update: Android and Windows

Mobile Update: Android and Windows

Abstract:

Developers in an ecosystem will often foretell adoption by creating content to drive demand for a product. The mobile market has been gauged by this same phenomenon.

Developers and Android:

While the chart is not linear (a mistake, not to create this as a time-series graph), it seems to show some very interesting trends. Developer interest in Android has appeared to have peaked and declining under both phones and tablets; interest in iPhone development is showing an ever so slight decline; iPad holding steady; interest in Windows mobile is inclining; BlackBerry dropping like a proverbial stone.


People have been commenting that the wrong statistics are getting followed, it is not happening, marketshare is not accurate, etc. - but there seems to be a slight discontent with the Android market from a developer's standpoint.

This is not the entire story - Android has a terrific price point, marketshare grows for Android at an astounding rate (as we will see shortly.) There is still some level of comfort that developers and consumers have with iOS, but one can never know how long that will last for - the marketplace is fickle.

Windows Clunky & Crashy:

While Windows for mobile devices seems to be catching more developers market share, it still looks very clunky, during various demonstrations. Note the multiple [thick] cabling hanging off of the tablet on the left, one with what seems to be an ugly adapter... one would not be surprised if all those cables place a great deal of strain on the tablet connectors and reduce longevity. They certainly reduce the ability to use the tablet in a free-flowing way. If I was presenting at Convergence 2012, I would not want to use that device.


The worst possible thing happened (again) when Microsoft was presenting at Convergence 2012 - a crash and burn of their new tablet.

You've got to hand it to Kirill Tatarinov, the head of Microsoft's ERP division. The Russian Rocket was cool as a cucumber on Monday when a demo of the Windows 8 Metro UI running on a touch-screen tablet crashed and burned during the opening keynote of Convergence 2012.

Sometimes, one has to feel bad for these presenters. having done multiple demos in the past, it is not very fun to have something like this happen, but it is not uncommon for Microsoft. It does not get any better, once you have a conference facility filled with people, networking at it's capacity peak, and power being drawn on a massive scale.


Windows Sinking, Android Skyrocketing:

Last year, this time, Microsoft mobile handset users experienced crashing on a massive scale, with a patch. Under 1 year later, mobile Windows handset sales collapsed while Android skyrocketed with what appears to be brand-new marketshare. Apple continued to make measured, but modest gains.

Network Management Connection:

Wired infrastructure is critical, but it seems to quickly becoming relegated to back-office. Front-office work moved towards laptops (which started outselling PC's in 2003, 2005, 2008), which often had wireless built-in for mobility. The trend continues to move mobile with smart phones and tablets. The previous Gartner marketshare chart (not the percentages) tells all: increase in overall units from 81 million units sold to 115 million units sold in 1 year in the 3rd quarter!

Wireless is THE PLACE to be, in the network management world. If you do not have a grasp on your wireless network, you need to figure out how to do so. People are clearly becoming unteathered, regardless of what the Microsoft Mobile presenters are doing, with their tethered and crashing tablets.

The Network: Consuming More Data

The Network: Consuming More Data
Abstract:
With the creation of new devices, usage will normally increase. The creation of the original Apple iPhone saw a rise in data usage previously unknown to telephone carriers. With faster devices hitting the networks, capacity continues to increase with no bounds.

Data Usage:
Data usage on wireless network carriers was measured. The iPhone 3G was used as a base unit of measurement.
iPhone 3G -> iPhone 4 = 1.6x increase
iPhone 3G -> iPad 2 = 2.3x increase
iPhone 3G -> iPhone 4S = 3x increase

Network Speed:
AT&T was generally shown as faster than Verizon.

Network Coverage:
Verizon was generally shown to have wider coverage than AT&T.

Next Generation 4G:
Verizon started rolling out 4G services in December 2010.
AT&T brought 4G to 15 cities by end of 2011.
AT&T expanded 4G to a total of 26 cities in Jan 2012.

Microsoft Phone: Reaction to iPhone

Microsoft Phone: Reaction to Apple iPhone

Abstract:
Microsoft failing in the consumer/mobile arena. With operating systems like Windows CE, it is no wonder. Microsoft may finally have a winning mobile system. The innovation forced upon them was a reaction driven by Apple's wildly successful iPhone.

What's New:
Microsoft and Nokia is about to release, at 2012 International Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Nokia's new phone is described as a sleek metallic phone. The Lumia 900 sports a Microsoft Windows mobile operating system and will be sold by AT&T in the United States.

Is it enough?
With Nokia killing it's home-grown phone operating system and Microsoft taking a front-seat in software development for Nokia, this could be a two-headed monster or an elegant solution desired by everyone. Consumers will make this decision over the next year.

Apple iPad3: Super Detail - Great and Small

Apple iPad3: Super Detail - Great and Small

Abstract:
Tablet computing was attempted by various hardware, software, and operating system vendors in the past - but never really progressed outside of the realm of industrial equipment. Apple released the first iPad and managed to create a new consumer market, with a simple interface, wrapped in elegant packaging. There are rumors of soon to be released iPads - for simplicity, we will call them iPad3's.

Timeline:
[2011-10-17] - Apple rumored to be manufacturing 1 Million iPad3
[2011-11-17] - Apple reducing orders of iPad2 screens
[2011-11-18] - iPad3 screens increase from 1 to 2 Million; Smaller screen coming
[2011-11-21] - iPad3 production started: 2048x1536 detail; 10 inch and 7.85 inch
[2011-12-29] - Apple iPad2 supply chain orders dropping slightly
[2011-12-29] - Apple iPad3 in January with 2x battery: 14AH vs 6.5AH
[2011-12-29] - Two iPad's to be released in Jan: 9.7 inch and 7.85 inch
[2012-01-06] - Apple iPad3 in March; iPad4 in October? *updated 2012-01-08*
[2012-01-06] - Apple iPad3 rumor true; iPad4 rumor false? *updated 2012-01-08*

Network Management Implications:

With the continued penetration of the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad into the market, customers increasingly desire network management platforms which offer robust HTML front-end interfaces vs Java based front-end interfaces.

Network Management providers should be concentrating and upgrading their customer interaction portals to be compatible with non-Microsoft based personal computers. Apple iPhone and iPad platforms have proved to be no passing fad, but a preferred method of access for consumers and professionals alike.

Apple: Breaking Free from Google?

Abstract:
During a time of peace, Google sat on the board of directors of Apple, and there was innovation, profit, and partnership in the minds of both companies. Apple engaged Google to provide network application services such as mapping, then Google betrayed Apple with this inside information. Apple has been trying to break free from Google, ever since.


History:

Apple started conceptual develpment of the iPhone, but Apple had a few gaps. Google sat on Apple's board of directors, so they made a good partner, to inquire about how they could fill some gaps. An agreement was struck, Google would provide mapping, instead of Apple going to other third-party mapping providers like Yahoo, who would not compete with them.

Google used this private information and purchased a development company who owned Android operating system. Google created a parallel development track, for their own Android based smart phone, without Apple's knowledge - the CEO of Google, who sat on Apple's board of directory was engaged in corporate espionage.

Apple released the ground-breaking iPhone, while Google put the finishing touches on their own smart phone. 6 months later, Google released their own smart phone, containing the same features, with a simlar look and feel.

Apple was stuck with having to return back to Google, as their mapping partner, Apple funded Google's mobile mapping through the iPhone revenue, while Google could take Apple's investment to compete with them into the mobile phone market. Google had clearly broken Apple's trust by using inside information from their CEO's participation in the Board of Directors, to gain an unfair competitive advantage to the rest of the market.


Breaking Free:

Google provided Apple with key functionality: mapping.

Unfortunately, mapping is a lot more complex than one might think. Roads are built & rebuilt. Continents shift. Earthquakes happen. Houses are demolished and turned into shopping malls. Farmland is turned into office parks. Progress occurs daily on a world-wide basis.

Apple's movement towards mapping independence started, not long after Google betrayed their business parter:
[2009-10-01] - Apple buys GigaOM "placebase", to gain location information
[2010-07-14] - Apple buys French-Canadian mapping Poly9, to have a world map
[2011-10-31] - Apple buys Sweedish 9to5Mac, to have a 3D world map


Freedom at Last?

The question in everyone's mind should be: when will Apple finally be able to claim freedom from Google, the company who double-crossed them, placing a bullet in Apple's leg, and crippling what could have allowed Apple's innovation to compete fairly in the Smart Phone industry?

Other companies, like Nokia and Symbian, had no chance to compete fairly with Google, who had left them with no way forward. Seeking partnership with Google, who so clearly betrayed Apple, would be likened to "making a deal with the devil" - phone vendors would know that Google would likely later cripple them in a similar fashion (Google stealing intellectual property while holding them prisoner with their own.)

One can only guess when Apple might break free. It might not be, until iPhone IOS 6, since it might take Apple a year to consolidate their 3 purchases over the past 3 years - unless Apple has another acquisition in mind, to surpass the capabilities of Google - the traitor in their midst.

Epilogue

Apple, Nokia, and Symbian were not the only companies crippled by Google's corporate espionage. Sun Microsystems had cooperated with Google with their central processor independant Java platform, with the understanding that Sun would receive license fees for Google's usage of Java in the mobile phones.

In the end, Sun received no license fees, as they did from other mobile vendors (like Motorola.) This placed mobile phone who licensed Java at a pricing disadvantage in the mobile phone arena, with those vendors who used Google's technology... thus encouraging those vendors to switch to Google's technology. Sun Microsystems continued to bleed money, until they were purchased by Oracle. Oracle filed law suits against Google.

Apple filed files law suits against third-party phone vendors, who used Android, in other knock-off Apple products. Google purchased Motorola (mobile phone company), undercutting Oracle's future revenue stream and gaining patent protection for their double-dealing. Sony broke their smart phone partnership with Symbian, who basically created the smartphone market.

When wondering about corporate morality, it is pretty clear - Google did evil...

RIM: Unbelievably Down, Unbelievably Long

RIM: Unbelievably Down, Unbelievably Long
Abstract:

Sun had a saying "The Network is The Computer". When a network is down, the computer is nearly useless. RIM is now experiencing "The Network is The BlackBerry". The BlackBerry is pretty much useless without the network. The impact to the market may be terrible.

A Short History:

Apple had made an attempt to build a "Personal Digital Assistant" market in 1987. The "Newton" seemed to target educators and students. Some other vendors released competing products, but none of them seem to be successful. It was a product "before it's time".

In 1996, U.S. Robotics created the "Palm Pilot", new digital assistant. This became successful, the technology moved to 3Com, Handspring, Palm.

Nokia started the merging of personal digital assistant software into the phone in the late 1990's, later on with some weak web browsing capability. Nokia cobbled together their phone with HP's software. The term "smart phone" was created. Ericson released a concept PDA and phone in 1997 with the eventual culmination of a touchscreen "smartphone" in 2000. The phone used the SymbianOS.


[2008-2009 Market Trend]

RIM seems to have virtually created the "smart phone" market in 1999. The merging of digital personal assistant and cell phone seemed to drive their success. Their primary target community was business and financial segments, who could afford an uplifted phone cost for the side benefit of becoming more efficient. The product offering was a success.


[2006-2009 Market Trend]

In the early 2000's, Palm released a merged their personal digital assistant with cell phone technology. The "smart phone" market had a new competitor. Eventually, the technology was purchased by HP, where it resides today.

[2009-2010 Market Trend]

Apple computer started designing the iPhone in 2005 and released it in January 2007. Their new "smart phone" (i.e. iPhone), which was speculated to be a "flop" since it did not come with a keyboard. The product targeted the "creative" and "youth" segments, merging functionality from their wildly popular iPod portable music & video playing devices. Also bundled was the first real web browser - until this point, internet HTTP experience was poor. The product offering was a success and placed pressure on RIM by slowly intruding into the business and financial sectors, while other vendors (like Palm and Microsoft) were getting devastated.


[2010-2011 Market Trend]

Google started a parallel track to Apple. They purchased Android, Inc in late 2005 and eventually released an operating system called "Android" in late 2007, after the wildly successful Apple iPhone introduction earlier that year. Phone manufacturers jumped on-board Android, trying to get a chunk of the "smart phone" market, without the heavy investment and innovation performed by companies like Palm, RIM, and Apple.


Cell phone giant, Nokia, had been losing market share. Microsoft had been losing marketshare in the mobile phone operating system market. These two shrinking titans agreed in April 2011 to combine forces - Nokia providing hardware with Microsoft's OS. It could stem the bleeding from both companies or the two shrinking titans might become one sinking titanics.

The Nightmare Scenario

RIM had "secret sauce" embedded into it's BlackBerry communicator - all communciation from their phones were carried over their network infrastructure, in addition to the telephone carrier's infrastructure. RIM's encrypted network allowed them to provide add-on services, as well as security to their business users.

This week, there has been a multi-day outage for BlackBerry users, across the globe. The problem was with a switch in THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE - which means it is not the fault of a telephone company. Only BlackBerry users are affected - while the rest of the SmartPhone market is unaffected.

Don't Lie To The Customer

RIM's "secret sauce" is appearing to be their "achilles heel". Without RIM and their network, the BlackBerry is pretty much useless.

This very week, there is BlackBerry training happening in my corporate headquarters, and when questions regarding the BlackBerry difficulties came up - the trainer said "there must be something wrong with your company's network."

The truth is not only out, but it appears the issue is isolated to THEIR customer network.

Bad Discusssions

When investors and analysts start to talk about situations like these, the language does not get any worse than this.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek crushed RIM in a research note today. His memo to activists was that RIM's turnaround will take a long time...

Specifically, Misek said that RIM can't be broken up until its migration to QNX is complete in roughly six months. Meanwhile, a management change is difficult. Motorola Mobility CEO Sanjay Jha would be a candidate to lead RIM, but he's highly thought of at Google. Other executives at Apple and Microsoft are largely locked up from going to RIM. PC makers, smartphone rivals, and other takeover options look slim.

Add it up and RIM's only real option at the moment is to execute well and bolster momentum for the BlackBerry. The outages aren't helping that cause.

Surviving because there are no other options on the table when investors are thinking about chopping your comany up into little pieces it not a good place to be.


When Sharks Attack

During this very week, Apple had announced their long-anticipated iPhone 4S, a faster SmartPhone with build-in "Cloud Syncronization" - Apple will no longer require a user to have a computer in order to keep their phones backed up or syncronized with music. Apple's phone will no longer require Apple or a PC in order to get the full functionality of it. Apple's open-sourced MacOSX based iPhone was poised for serious growth, without the BlackBerry disaster.

Google is about to feed the market, with it's army of hardware manufacturers, with more open-sourced Android phones while sinking-faster-than-a-brick Nokia and Microsoft are trying to establish a new marketplace with Microsoft's closed-source operating system. Microsoft, with their business relationships, may actually float Nokia, with this unfortunate BlackBerry disaster.

This will surely be a feeding frenzy for the three major remaining phone operating system vendors.


Bad for the Free Market

The Free Market is all about choice - the loss of any major competitor in the market is bad for all of the consumers.

One might argue that RIM's "monopoly" of providing THE centralized infrastructure for all BlackBerries to traverse is the due penalty for their anti-capitalistic tendencies... and their customers deserve what they get for placing all their "eggs in one basket".

This author is not interested in seeing the diverse market competitors become centralized, since the evil is self-evident, it is dangerous for innovation. There must be freedom to innovate in the highly government regulated market of telecommunications.

Network Management

The probable decline of RIM is due to one massive network infrastructure error.

Had their network been better managed, their future decline may not be so sure.

It is possible that they will recover, but I would hate to be in that company today, and I would hate to be the team managing that network today.

The network is the rise and fall of a company - don't mis-manage your network.

Technical Posts for 1H August

Technical Posts for 1H August

Some technical news of interest to Network Management professionals.

• People don't want tablets, they want iPads

iPads are the only tablet devices that several large brokers expressed an interest in, as vendors seek alternatives routes to peddle their wares. "There is a mountain of surplus tablets in the channel," said one, "and they are just not shifting"... resellers continue to try and clear massive stocks of notebooks caused by the biting slowdown in consumer demand.


• Apple reportedly ups iPhone production orders by 12%

Apple is expecting to shift 56 million iPhones of one type or another during the last six months of 2011. Taiwan-based supply chain moles say Apple has upped its production requirement from the 50m units it ordered at the end of Q2, DigiTimes reports.

• Google SHOCK! Snaps up Motorola phone biz for $12.5bn

Google has made its largest-ever acquisition, and biggest corporate gamble, by splashing out $12.5bn for Motorola's phone division, Motorola Mobility. The deal puts Google into the hardware business in a serious way – and into direct competition with licensees of its Android operating system, who woke up this morning thinking they were Google's business partners.

• Firefox 6 silently released ahead of official unwrap date

Mozilla isn't officially breaking the seal on Firefox 6 until tomorrow, but the code for the latest iteration of its popular open source browser is already available online. It is currently tucked away on the organisation's FTP server. A blogger over at TechnoBolt spotted that the code has been downloadable since at least Saturday 13 August.

Network Management Implications

With the strong sales of newer portable form factors such as the new Apple iPad and iPhone, the trend to move away from traditional desktop computing, and even luggable laptops continues to accelerate. This trend continues to place pressure on wireless infrastructure, which needs to be properly managed.

With Google Android and Microsoft Windows based devices in decline, in the tablet market - GPL'ed Linux and proprietary Windows are both taking a beating by mixed Open Sourced BSD UNIX based iOS (MacOSX) [with proprietary hooks] based devices. Both of these operating systems are pushing hard [and more successfully] in the mobile arena, in the handset arena.

The movement by Google to buy Motorola may be a move to help stem the tide, by injecting more money into the vertical phone & tablet chain, which seems to be faultering under the weight of warehouse backlogs. The JAVA suit by Oracle is probably not helping, since Motorola has to pay license fees for all non-Google based handsets, while Google handsets have been able to undercut non-Google handset costs by refusing to pay Oracle license fees.

As mobile computing becomes more pervasive, network management will continue to be challenging.

Detecting & Obscuring Tethering

Detecting & Obscuring Tethering

Abstract:
Network providers have traditionally offered the capability of leveraging the wireless network for portable computers. Recently, certain wireless devices had been omitted from this capability called Tethering. The Apple iPhone may leverage a particular TCP/IP feature called Time To Live (TTL) which may be leveraged to track tethering.

Enter Julian 3:
A user who refers to himself as "Julian 3" who reads "The Register" in the UK posted a comment indicating one way which a mobile device may be differentiated from other mobile devices, as well as how to determine if that device is performing tethering. Julian 3 explains TTL in this fashion:

All IP packets have something called a TTL associated with them. It stands for Time To Live. Every "hop" along the network from one router to the next reduces the TTL by one. When it reaches 0, the packet is dropped. This was introduced to keep routing problems from overloading the network. If for example, by some error a packet was going around in a circular path, the TTL would eventually reach 0 and prevent a packet storm.

Julilan 3 suggests that the iPhone uses a TTL of 64 and packets from tethered devices may normally have a different TTL from the packets which originate from their devices. After the packets proceed through the iPhone, acting as a gateway, the TTL in the packet will decrease by one.

Suggested Obfuscation:

Julian 3 suggests the following process to obscure Windows clients.

Apple uses a TTL of 64 for the iPhone, by the way. So change the TTL on your computer to "65" and there should be no problem. Here's how to do it:

1. Click Start - Search and type “regedit”. This launches the WIndows Registry.

2. In the registry, navigate to the following registry key [HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\CurrentControlSet\Services\Tcpip\Parameters] HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE
\SYSTEM
\CurrentControlSet
\Services
\Tcpip
\Parameters

3. In the right pane, right-click and select New – DWORD (32-bit value) and set its name as "DefaultTTL" and set its value anything between 0 and 255. The value sets the number of Hops or links the packet traverses before being discarded.

Network Management Connection:
This process of detecting a tethered connection is very network centric. Whether or not a network carrier uses this particular process for tethering is really not important. It does demonstrate that various signatures from a client can be used to easily determine characteristics about the source system.

There are plenty of other mechanisms which can be used to identify the source or destination of traffic, including simple things like HTTP headers. Fully obscuring the source system is far more complex than this.

Using iPhone Video With Proprietary PC's

Using iPhone Video With Proprietary PC's

Some people may ask why someone would need a video recorder on their phone?

Well, this 1st generation iPhone with a video app saved the day!

When trying to load AMD/Intel Solaris 10 on a proprietary PC platform, sometimes the key sequence to break into the BIOS flashes by too quickly to read.

Without having a standard keystroke, as is available with OpenFirmware on a real computing platform, it is sometimes very difficult to see what keys need to be pressed, as it flashes by on the screen, during the boot.

Well, with a little video recording action and slow motion playback - it is a breeze to see the details!